What do businesses around the world really expect in 2026? To answer this question, the Gedeth Research Center surveyed more than 50,000 professionals across 84 countries during the first quarter of 2026, in collaboration with DHL Express and Universidade Europeia. The result is the report “Resilience in a Fragmented World: How Companies Are Adapting to the New Geopolitics of Trade.”
The findings reveal a clear narrative: after a year marked by tariff escalation, supply chain disruption, and renewed geopolitical conflict, the dominant mood among businesses is not fear, but determination. Companies are adapting, adjusting strategies, and continuing to search for growth in an increasingly fragmented global economy.
A Surprisingly Resilient Outlook
Despite global uncertainty, optimism remains strong. Nearly half of respondents (48.7%) expect their business to grow in 2026, while 24% anticipate stable conditions. Only 5.5% foresee a decline. This level of confidence is notably higher than the International Monetary Fund’s global GDP growth forecast, suggesting that businesses are identifying micro-level opportunities — such as new markets and digital efficiencies — that macroeconomic models often fail to capture.
Smaller companies are the most optimistic, with firms of 10 to 50 employees projecting 55% growth. This highlights their ability to pivot quickly and adapt to changing conditions more effectively than larger organisations with more rigid structures.
Stability Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
Even during periods of geopolitical shock, confidence has remained relatively stable. During the survey period, which coincided with the outbreak of the Iran–US–Israel conflict, growth expectations fell from 59% before the war to 45% during it. Although this represents a clear decline, the overall outlook remains positive.
This pattern is consistent with previous crises, such as the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine, where sentiment declined temporarily before stabilising. Rather than panic, the data reflects adjustment and resilience in the face of external shocks.
Business fundamentals also remain solid. 57% of respondents expect sales growth in 2026, while 56.7% plan to maintain their workforce and 22.7% intend to expand it. Companies appear to be relying more on productivity and efficiency than on large-scale hiring to support growth.
Where the Opportunities Are in 2026
The most significant opportunities for 2026 are concentrated in three areas: digitalisation and artificial intelligence (56.8%), access to new markets (46.4%), and product and service innovation (38.7%). Across responses, diversification stands out as the central strategy, with companies using both technology and geographic expansion to reduce exposure to volatility.
In terms of sector outlook, technology and ICT lead by a wide margin, followed by energy and sustainability, and healthcare and biotechnology. Traditional industries are seen as less likely to deliver strong growth in the current environment.
Risk, Diversification, and the Shift to “China+N”
International instability remains the top concern, cited by 67% of respondents, followed by tariffs and trade barriers at 50.9%. These risks increased significantly following the outbreak of conflict, reinforcing the importance of geopolitical resilience in corporate strategy.
One of the most important shifts identified in the report is the move from “China+1” strategies to “China+N” diversification. Instead of relying on a single alternative production base, companies are spreading operations across multiple regions closer to end markets. This trend is strengthening the strategic relevance of hubs such as Spain, Turkey, and Central America, while Europe is ranked as the most attractive global region by nearly 60% of respondents due to its stability and integrated market structure.
These findings represent only the headline results. The full report, “Resilience in a Fragmented World,” includes detailed regional breakdowns, sector analysis, before-and-after conflict comparisons, and the complete dataset, along with strategic insights for companies planning their 2026 international expansion.
At Gedeth Network, we believe that sound international decisions start with listening to the businesses that are actually shaping global trade. If you would like to discuss what these findings mean for your company’s growth and expansion plans, our team is ready to help you turn insight into a clear, actionable strategy.
